My opinion on the development prospect of small an

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Abstract: at the turn of the century and the dawn of the new millennium, the historical reversal of the supply and demand situation of Fujian's power industry and the unexpected fundamental adjustment of the local power agricultural power management system have caused a strong shock in Fujian's local governments at all levels and water conservancy departments. "The theory of excess electricity" and "the useless theory of small and medium-sized hydropower" have also been paid attention to again in Fujian Province...

key words: the development prospect of small and medium-sized hydropower power system at the turn of the century and the dawn of the new millennium, the historical reversal of the supply and demand situation of Fujian electric power industry and the unexpected fundamental adjustment of the local power rural power management system have caused a strong shock in Fujian local governments at all levels and water conservancy departments. "The theory of excess electricity" and "the theory of useless small and medium-sized hydropower" are also paid attention to again in Bamin. Some experts who have been engaged in the management or leadership of small and medium-sized hydropower and rural electrification construction for a long time even said publicly at relevant meetings: in the new century, small and medium-sized hydropower is useless and has no future. Is the development prospect of small and medium-sized hydropower really so bleak? Personally, not necessarily! 1、 Historical experience shows that small and medium-sized hydropower has strong vitality. Since the reform and opening up, Fujian has had two "electricity surplus theories" that have dominated the whole society, and both have brought great losses to the sustained, rapid and healthy development of Fujian's electric energy and economic society. It first occurred in the early stage of the sixth five year plan, and its direct consequences were prominently reflected in the unprecedented situation of large-scale power rationing, power pulling and power supply in turn in the wet season of 1988; The second occurred in the middle and late period of the Seventh Five Year Plan. During the period when Shaxi should clear and polish the contact points or replace the new reversing switch ports, Huaneng and Shuikou, three large-scale hydro thermal power plants were successively put into operation, the direct result was a serious power shortage in the province during the eighth five year plan. Econcore is also preparing to use the improved technology of thermohex to produce organic plywood materials. The "victims" and spearheads of the two "electricity surplus theories" are small and medium-sized hydropower. Fujian local power, which is mainly powered by small and medium-sized hydropower, has been subject to mandatory suppression in terms of plan approval, power fund collection, and the implementation of the national electricity price reform policy. There are many reasons for the two mistakes in Fujian's power energy decision-making in the first 10 years of reform, but they are mainly caused by departmental interests, overly superstitious authority (administrative and technical) judgments, and the lack of in-depth and detailed comprehensive investigation and analysis of the power supply structure, supply and demand trend and the operation of major power plants of the province's power system. However, historical deficiencies also contributed to a new round of rapid and extraordinary development of small and medium-sized hydropower during the eighth five year plan. 2、 The current electricity surplus in Fujian is a low-level temporary phenomenon under the specific international and domestic economic situation. The Asian financial crisis and economic restructuring, as well as the lagging reform of the power management system, are the main reasons for the slowdown in the consumption momentum of Fujian's power market. At present, the average power consumption level in Fujian is only equivalent to one third of the national per capita power consumption level and the world per capita power consumption level. By 2010, the province's GDP will double that of ZJD, which is the established goal and policy. In 1998, the installed capacity and annual power generation of the province were 8.0127 million KW and 32.27 billion kwh, which should reach 16 million KW and 64 billion kwh in 12 years. However, the total scale of large and medium-sized hydro thermal power plants is far from doubling. Electrification is one of the prominent symbols of modernization. As the first batch of reform and opening-up provinces in China, Fujian's current power consumption level is far from that of domestic advanced provinces, so there is no reason to be optimistic. 3、 The actual idle capacity of Fujian power system after deducting the reserve capacity for safe and economic operation and stable and reliable power supply is unknown. It is well known that in economic development, power should be ahead of time and moderately ahead, that is, the concept of design level year and power elasticity coefficient should be considered; To ensure power supply safely, stably and reliably, the power system must reserve emergency reserve, maintenance reserve and load reserve capacity as required. After considering the above factors and in accordance with national regulations and deducting the standby power generation capacity, how much idle capacity does the power generation equipment of Fujian power system have? Calculations are required. No relevant information is available at present. We cannot calculate the surplus and shortage of supply and demand according to the "full calculation" that lactic acid is the by-product of normal metabolism of the human body. Before fully considering the scientific prediction of Fujian's economic and social needs for power development in 2010 and determining the current idle capacity and structural characteristics of water and thermal power in the power system, it is unfavorable to the healthy development of Fujian's power industry in the next 10 years to simply say that there is a serious surplus of electricity and there is no need for small and medium-sized hydropower. 4、 The mandatory "pricing and underwriting" policy of Houshi and Meizhouwan thermal power plants is not in line with the operating rules of the market economic system, and it is impossible to enter the WTO for a long time and comprehensively push the socialist modernization construction with Chinese characteristics into the 21st century. It is decided that China's market economic system reform should be accelerated in an all-round way and the national management strategy for economic development should be greatly adjusted towards further relaxation, To adapt to and further play the role of the market in the basic allocation of resources; It is only a matter of time before foreign capital, sole proprietorship, joint ventures and state-owned enterprises enjoy the same national treatment. The "guaranteed underwriting" economic contracts of Houshi and manzhouwan thermal power plants, which are characterized by government actions and mandatory plans, will also be forced to amend by the "mandatory" or under the strong pressure of industry associations, public opinion and power companies. Like other power enterprises with different investors and ownership, they will enter the market and carry out fair, just and open competition. 5、 With the strengthening of the implementation of the environmental protection sustainable development strategy and the increase of the cost of thermal power generation, the unique advantages and competitiveness of small and medium-sized hydropower will become more prominent. Under the leadership of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, the legislation and law enforcement of environmental protection in China, including Fujian, have been increasingly strengthened in recent years. The basic national policy of protecting the living environment and implementing the strategy of sustainable development has become increasingly popular. The new development of thermal power plants, which are the major emitters of soot and the "culprit" of acid rain in the province, is bound to be subject to new restrictions; The huge investment in the built thermal power plants to meet the environmental protection standards will inevitably significantly increase the production cost and reduce the competitiveness. Small and medium-sized hydropower plants are renewable and pollution-free. Compared with large-scale hydro thermal power plants, they are more compatible with the environment and more conducive to absorbing idle social funds, giving full play to the financial resources of small and medium-sized investors to develop and other inherent advantages and characteristics, which will be more obvious and further improve competitiveness. As long as we look at the developed capitalist countries, France, where 100% of the water and power resources have been developed, and the United States, which has been developing small hydropower in recent years, we can get some inspiration from it. 6、 The special geographical distribution of small and medium-sized hydropower determines its

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